China's refined nickel prices soft during 2025 CNY holiday
创建于02.06
During the Chinese New Year holiday, the refined nickel market saw little trading activity due to the Shanghai Futures Exchange's closure, the suspension of nickel trading on the SHFE, and holiday breaks for Chinese companies.
Looking at historical price trends around the holiday, refined nickel prices typically rose after the holiday, except in 2020 when the market was significantly impacted by Covid-19. This year, however, LME nickel prices dropped sharply during the holiday. As of the close on February 3rd, it was USD $15,075/tonne, down USD $490/tonne from January 27th, a decrease of 3.15%.
From 2017 to 2020, spot prices remained relatively stable around the Chinese New Year. Starting in 2021, low inventory and high demand caused premiums to rise sharply during pre-holiday stockpiling, followed by significant declines post-holiday. In 2022, the increased use of MHP and nickel matte in the stainless steel and new energy sectors shifted the market to a weak supply-demand balance. Before the 2023 holiday, low spot inventories led to a sharp rise in premiums, which quickly reversed afterward. In 2024, refined nickel supply was more ample compared to 2023, resulting in a smaller premium increase before the holiday.
2020-2024 Nickel Futures and Premium/Discount Changes Before and After the Chinese New Year
Year | Futures Price Changes (%) | Spot Premiums and Discounts (Yuan/tonne) |
|||
SHFE nickel | LME nickel | Jinchuan nickel | Russian nickel | Nickel briquette |
|
2020 | -3.31 | 5.07 | - | - | - |
2021 | 1.74 | 2.62 | -1500 | -100 | - |
2022 | 4.76 | 5.08 | 500 | 1500 | 1800 |
2023 | 1.15 | 1.26 | -3800 | 223 | 357 |
2024 | 3.58 | 1.77 | -920 | - | - |
Source: Mysteel
Before this year's Chinese New Year, nickel prices fluctuated widely, with downstream companies purchasing based on demand. Market transactions were mainly for low-premium electrolytic nickel. Amid high macroeconomic uncertainty, traders were generally reluctant to increase inventories before the holiday, making it difficult to transact high-premium resources from Jinchuan Group.
During the 2025 Chinese New Year period, China's refined nickel production continued to rise due to new production lines coming online. While many small nickel producers paused operations for the holiday, most large and medium-sized producers maintained normal production. In January, China's refined nickel production is expected to reach 33,300 tonnes, down 4.11% month-on-month but up 46.62% year-on-year.
2025 China Refined Nickel Production Status
It is expected that SHFE nickel will continue its downward trend after the Chinese New Year. As traders resume operations and prices remain low in the spot market, market activity is likely to improve. A noticeable pickup in trading is anticipated after February 12, with spot premiums potentially increasing as well.