China's bauxite imports up 25% in Jan-Feb amid healthy demand and elevated supply from Guinea

According to customs data, China imported 14.4 million tonnes of bauxite in February, down 11% from the previous month but 28% higher than the same period last year. The MoM decrease, driven by declines from Guinea and Australia, was partially offset by the increment from non-mainstream sources.

 

Data: GACC

 

China's total bauxite imports in the first two months were up 25% to 30.6 million tonnes, of which 76% came from Guinea and 17% sourced from Australia. The volume imported from Guinea rose by 29% to 23.4 million tonnes. Despite the suspension of GAC, we observed increased shipments from the top supplier amid capacity ramp-up of some projects and new commissioning.

 

The imports from Australia in the first two months decreased by 4% to 5.3 million tonnes, which was not due to supply disruptions. Mysteel attributed the YoY decline to rising supply from Australia to other countries.

 

Apart from these two major sources, China also imported 1.95 million tonnes of bauxite from non-mainstream sources in the first two months, much higher than 0.8 million tonnes in the same period last year.

 

Data: GACC

 

Strong demand for seaborne bauxite in China attracts more suppliers. We saw a new source on the list of imports, Pakistan. China imported 38kt from the country in the first two months. The price of these cargoes was around $65/t, showing its competitiveness in prices among peers. However, the supply capacity from the new supplier is smaller than other non-mainstream sources.

 

Brazil was not on the list of imports in the first two months. According to Comex Stat, the country's bauxite exports to China have decreased significantly since Q4 last year, and no exports to China in the first two months this year. We expect that China will see a visible decrease in bauxite imports from Brazil this year from 1.23 million tonnes last year due to a lack of price competitiveness.

 

We expect China's bauxite imports will remain elevated in Q2 driven by demand from new alumina commissioning in China and high supply from Guinea and Australia in the dry season. Supply from Australia will increase in Q2 after Metro Mining restarts production and shipments in late March.