China Mar lithium-ion battery materials production

China's nickel sulfate production stood at 182,500 tonnes in Mar, or 40,500 tonnes in Ni. content, up 6.91% month on month (MoM) according to Mysteel survey. The production comprised 0% nickel briquette/powder, 64.7% MHP, 28.77% high-grade nickel matte, and 7.35% secondary nickel by raw material.

 

In March, integrated nickel sulfate producers, combining raw materials with downstream ternary precursor and nickel plate operations, increased production continuously. Downstream, rising cobalt prices led ternary precursor manufacturers to stock up early, which in turn boosted their production. At the same time, low nickel sulfate profitability prompted companies to increase nickel plate production, significantly raising the total nickel sulfate volume. However, circulating supply remains insufficient, pushing prices higher gradually to correct profit levels.

 

It is expected that China's nickel sulfate production will reach 39,900 tonnes in Ni. content in April, a 0.49% month-on-month decline, with about 17,700 tonnes dedicated to nickel plate production. Reduced MHP production in Indonesia is likely to impact April's nickel sulfate production to some extent.

 

Indonesia's MHP production reached 37,700 tonnes in March, up 13.22% MoM and 59.78% YoY, according to Mysteel's survey of seven sample projects in Indonesia.

 

It is expected that Indonesia's MHP production will down 9.86% MoM to 34,000 tonnes in April.

 

Indonesia's nickel matte production totaled 21,100 tonnes in March, down 24.44% MoM and 23.65% YoY, according to Mysteel's survey of 13 sample projects in Indonesia. This includes 16,700 tonnes of high-grade and 4,400 tonnes of low-grade nickel matte.

 

Indonesia's nickel matte production is estimated at 17,700 tonnes in April, down 16.47% MoM and 46.22% YoY.

 

In March, China's cobalt sulfate production was 23,341 tonnes, an increase of 28.70% MoM and 2.76% YoY respectively. The impact of DRC's export ban in March was significant. The production pace on the supply side accelerated, and the prices of cobalt sulfate climbed, helping the profits return to the positive. Meanwhile, some companies that had previously undergone equipment maintenance or production shutdowns resumed work, and some top-tier ones increased their operating rates to seize market share. As a result, the production of cobalt sulfate picked up in March.

 

China's cobalt sulfate production is expected to be 23,000 tonnes in April, dropping 1.46% MoM and 15.45% YoY. The decrease in April is mainly due to the rapid growth of cobalt sulfate prices, which have been at a high level for a long time. Downstream users have limited acceptance of current prices, and there is less procurement, with consumers mainly replying on previous inventory. The cumulative inventory of smelters and the tight supply of raw materials are expected to lead to a decrease in cobalt sulfate production in April.

 

China's production of cobalt chloride amounted to 19,573 tonnes in March, experiencing a month-on-month increase of 13.92% and a year-on-year growth of 3.02%. In March, the prices of cobalt products moved up due to the impact of DRC's export ban. While demand showed gradual recovery, most enterprises maintained normal production. However, some leading smelters expanded their production, and other producers that had previously undergone technical upgrades or maintenance shutdowns resumed normal operations. These factors collectively contributed to an increase in March production.

 

Looking ahead to April, China's cobalt chloride production is likely to reach 17,500 tonnes, marking a MoM decrease of 20.73%. It is expected that the downstream centralized procurement may continue to be postponed in April, and the prices of cobalt chloride will be at a high level, while downstream users have limited acceptance to the current price, resulting in poor demand for cobalt chloride. It is likely that there will be a certain reduction in the production of cobalt chloride in April.

 

China's lithium carbonate production stood at 80,200 tonnes in March, up 25.2% from the previous month, according to Mysteel survey.

 

The monthly increase was mainly driven by post-Chinese New Year production recovery. Enterprises such as Lopal,  Fengxin, and Wanzai gradually ramped up their production capacity. At the same time, manufacturers with spodumene maintained relatively high operating rates, and producers also began receiving production orders in the recycling sector. Additionally, some spodumene smelters resumed operations smoothly after completing technological upgrades, further boosting overall production.

 

Looking ahead, China's lithium carbonate production will likely fall 4.6% month on month to 76,600 tonnes in April. In northern China, operating rates are dropping, primarily due to prolonged cost inversion between ore and product prices. Non-integrated producers, lacking contract orders, show low willingness to operate. Moreover, some spodumene production lines see production reductions due to maintenance. Considering current lithium carbonate prices and survey feedback from enterprises, overall production in April is expected to experience a modest decline.

 

China's lithium hydroxide production stood at 21,900 tonnes in March, up 11.5% from the previous month, based on Mysteel survey.

 

This monthly growth is mainly attributed to the gradual resumption of factory operations, the completion of maintenance on major production lines, and the rapid recovery of capacity utilization to normal levels. Meanwhile, downstream 2025 long-term contract orders have been finalized, which has significantly boosted production enthusiasm to ensure timely delivery.

 

In April, China's lithium hydroxide production is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 22,700 tonnes. Currently, major producers maintain stable operating rates, and some companies that had paused production in March for maintenance are expected to resume operations, thereby slightly increasing overall production.

 

China's ternary precursor production stood at 73,500 tonnes in March, an increase of 18.17% month-on-month and 20.29% year-on-year. In March, the rapid surge in cobalt prices prompted downstream battery cell manufacturers to place advance orders, leading to a significant production increase and rising demand. However, some companies will likely curtail the production in April due to heightened export uncertainty caused by the US so-called reciprocal tariffs.

 

The ternary precursor production is estimated at 74,800 tonnes in April, an increase of 1.77% MoM while a drop of 1.31% YoY.

 

In March, China's ternary cathode materials production reached 61,400 tonnes, with an increase of 25.15% MoM and 13.59% YoY respectively. In March, the rapid rise in cobalt prices encouraged the downstream battery cell manufacturers to place orders in advance, resulting in a significant increase in the production of ternary cathode materials.

 

However, some companies have begun to destock and cut back on raw material purchases due to the uncertainty surrounding battery cell exports caused by the U.S. tariff reciprocity policy in April. The market trend in April remains highly uncertain, and production may decline due to macroeconomic factors. China's production of ternary cathode materials is estimated at 62,600 tonnes in April, an increase of 1.96% MoM and a decline of 0.19% YoY.

 

China's cobalt powder production stood at 787 tonnes in March, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 12.91% but a year-on-year drop of 7.95%. In March, the cobalt powder smelters gradually resumed normal production. Coupled with some manufacturers building stocks in advance to prepare for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) export ban, the capacity utilization rates improved, driving a month-on-month increase in the production. Downstream buyers primarily made purchases based on rigid demand, while leading companies relied on long-term orders.

 

In April, the cobalt powder production is expected to reach 780 tonnes. The traditional off-season for consumer electronics has arrived, with demand unlikely to show significant improvement and likely continuing its year-on-year decline. If downstream orders fail to rebound, the smelters are more inclined to keep the inventory at a low level. Meanwhile, uncertainties in raw material supply persist, which may also constrain short-term growth in cobalt powder production.

 

In March, China's electrolytic cobalt production reached 4,480 tonnes, marking a month-on-month decrease of 16.57% and a year-on-year increase of 70.02%. Some smelters reported production cuts due to continued impact of DR Congo's cobalt export ban in March, which had a certain impact on the overall production in March. At the same time, some smelters chose to suspend their production. But the production scheduling of the top-tier ones was relatively flat. Therefore, the overall production in March declined.

 

Looking ahead, China's electrolytic cobalt production is projected to be around 4,400 tonnes in April. The cobalt market is still affected by the DRC's export control policies, and market sentiment is heating up. Coupled with fluctuations in raw material prices, the production of electrolytic cobalt is expected to remain constrained. Some manufacturers may continue to suspend or reduce the production. Meanwhile, the traders' electrolytic cobalt inventory is relatively sufficient, and the consumers' stockpiling demand may be relatively flat. It is expected that the growth of electrolytic cobalt production in April will be suppressed.

 

China's Co3O4 production reached 9,396 tonnes in March, marking a month-on-month increase of 28.89% and a year-on-year growth of 25.61%. The production increase in March was mainly due to raw material disturbances after DR Congo announced cobalt export control. Enterprises with high reserves of cobalt intermediates took the opportunity to improve production flexibility and increase the capacity utilization rates. Meanwhile, the prices of Co3O4 were at a high level, and some small and medium-sized enterprises saw profitability space and chose to lift the production. Meanwhile, the top-tier ones also moved up the production in order to ensure stable delivery of long-term orders signed in the early stage, leading to an increase in the overall Co3O4 production in March.

 

In April, China's Co3O4 production is projected to be 8,800 tonnes, representing a MoM decrease of 6.34% but a YoY growth of 12.10% as downstream users have been cautious in purchasing, and the raw materials prices are at a high level on tight supply. Hence it is expected that the LCO production will drop slightly in April.

 

China's LMO production stood at 9,080 tonnes in March, up 1.79% MoM.

 

In March, China's lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) production reached 9,760 tonnes, an increase of 29.61% MoM. In March, the LCO market experienced price hikes primarily due to disruptions in the supply chain caused by the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export ban. This prompted LCO smelters to increase the production. Meanwhile, the market resumes normal production in March from the holiday season in February.

 

It is anticipated that production will drop month-on-month in April due to high LCO prices and flat demand for 3C products. And the downstream players prioritize destocking. The routine stockpiling may be delayed until around Labor Day. Therefore, it is expected that the production of LCO in April will decline slightly.

 

China's LFP production was up 15.48% MoM at 270,100 tonnes in March. The decline was due to the Chinese New Year holiday, when some LFP companies temporarily reduced operating rates. Under the backdrop of its traditional peak season, the lithium iron phosphate market saw a rebound in production, with top-tier and second-tier manufacturers maintaining high operating rates.

 

In March, China's LFP production is likely to reach 272,800 tonnes, with only modest month-on-month growth. Currently, most LFP companies remain in full operation in April; some have increased production in response to new orders from leading battery cell manufacturers, while others have reduced production due to maintenance or product adjustments.

 

China's anode material production stood at 171,700 tonnes in March, down 4.19% MoM but up 28.33% YoY. In March, the anode materials market primarily operated based on existing orders, resulting in generally low inventory levels across enterprises. While the industry's overall operating rate remained stable, some companies reported a slight decline in production activity.